The U.S. housing market may be stuck in one of its deepest slumps in decades, but at the very top of the market, the story looks completely different. According to a recent report by The Wall Street Journal, overall sales volume in 2025 remained depressed as affordability stayed out of reach for many buyers. Yet homes priced at $10 million and above surged in both transactions and total dollar volume, underscoring a sharp divide between the broader housing market and the ultra-wealthy segment (Wall Street Journal, Jan. 29, 2026).
Data reviewed by the Journal from real-estate brokerage Compass shows that the nation’s top 10 luxury markets recorded more than 1,600 sales above $10 million in 2025—up roughly 32% year over year—with total dollar volume climbing nearly 24% to $28.6 billion. Los Angeles led the charge, posting a nearly 54% jump in eight-figure sales despite headwinds such as the so-called “mansion tax” and destructive wildfires. Agents told the Journal that sellers have gradually adjusted their expectations, unlocking pent-up demand from buyers who had been waiting for prices to come down.
A similar rebound played out in Northern California, where the ultra-luxury market rode the momentum of the artificial-intelligence boom. The Wall Street Journal reports that sales of $10 million-plus homes jumped more than 36% in Silicon Valley and 50% in San Francisco, reversing years of sluggish activity tied to tech layoffs, crime concerns, and remote work. With AI companies, founders, and investors concentrated in the region—and limited inventory available—competition for high-end homes intensified rapidly as tech wealth flowed back into real estate.
The surge extended well beyond traditional luxury hubs. Emerging markets such as Phoenix, San Diego, and Dallas are now seeing eight-figure sales as a regular occurrence, while record-setting deals in places like Naples, Florida, and Paradise Valley, Arizona, signal how far the ultra-luxury trend has spread, according to the Journal. Whether the momentum can last remains an open question, especially amid geopolitical risks and concerns about an AI bubble. Still, as the Wall Street Journal notes, many ultra-wealthy buyers continue to view real estate as a tangible safe haven—an asset that offers stability when financial markets feel anything but certain.